Latvia Votes: The 5% Defense Test on NATO's Edge

Latvians are voting today, Saturday, October 3, in a parliamentary election that Reuters reports is likely to keep pro-Ukrainian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs in power, even as deep fragmentation may complicate forming a government. I read this election less as a normal contest and more as a referendum on a number: 5% of GDP for defense, one of the highest levels in NATO, which Kulbergs has promised to maintain.

Why this vote is really about defense

The campaign has run in the shadow of the war in Ukraine and a growing number of airspace incursions, according to Reuters. The previous coalition crumbled in May over its handling of incidents in which stray military drones flew undetected into Latvia; officials blamed Russia for causing the drones to divert from their flight paths, even though the drones themselves were Ukrainian. Kulbergs, who came to power after that collapse, has promised more anti-drone capability alongside the 5% spending pledge. His message to Reuters last month was blunt: "We have to give Ukraine everything necessary right now (so) that they can have the upper hand and win."

The opposition tells a different story. Opinion polls reported by Reuters put Kulbergs's centrist United List ahead with about 14% of the vote, followed closely by the overtly pro-Russian Sovereign Power party, whose leader Julia Stepanenko argues Latvia should stop aid to Ukraine and focus on cost-of-living issues, particularly among the country's Russian-speaking minority. With the leader at roughly 14%, whoever wins will govern through coalition arithmetic, not a mandate.

The Baltics already outspend the alliance

Here is the context I think matters most. NATO estimates published in July and reported by Reuters put Lithuania at an estimated 5.33% of GDP on core defense in 2026, Estonia at 5.10%, Latvia at 4.92%, and Poland at 4.68% — the four highest shares in the alliance, all above the 3.5% core-defense goal NATO leaders set at The Hague in 2025 for 2035. Greece, at 3.65%, is the only other ally above that line this year. By comparison, the same NATO estimates put the United States at 3.17%, Germany at 2.69%, the United Kingdom at 2.56%, and France at 2.22%, with European NATO members and Canada averaging 2.53%.

NATO's 2026 core defense estimates: the three Baltic states and Poland sit above the 3.5% goal, ahead of the United States and the large Western European allies. Source: NATO estimates via Reuters, July 7, 2026.

That is not a rounding difference. The three Baltic states are spending roughly double the European alliance average as a share of their economies, and CSIS's burden-sharing analysis notes their planned 2026 budgets rank highest in NATO as a share of GDP after an average increase of about 134% in defense spending from 2022 to 2026. Geography explains it: these are the states that border Russia and Belarus, host the alliance's exposed northeastern flank, and treat deterrence as an immediate bill rather than a 2035 aspiration.

The four NATO members above the 3.5% core-defense goal in 2026 all sit on the alliance's eastern flank. Source: NATO estimates via Reuters, July 7, 2026; Natural Earth boundaries.

What fragmentation changes — and what it does not

A fragmented result cuts both ways. On one hand, a parliament where the largest party holds about 14% makes every budget a negotiation, and defense at nearly 5% of GDP competes directly with the cost-of-living concerns Sovereign Power is campaigning on. On the other hand, Latvia's trajectory predates this election: the International Centre for Defence and Security classifies Latvia among NATO's "fast-track" allies, intending to hit both the 3.5% core and 1.5% defense-related targets well before 2035, by 2027. Spending at that level is embedded in multi-year procurement — air defense, anti-drone systems, infrastructure — that a single coalition fight rarely unwinds.

What I am watching after the ballots are counted: whether the coalition talks produce a government that keeps the 5% pledge intact, how quickly anti-drone procurement moves from promise to contract, and whether the pro-Russian vote share grows enough to become a permanent brake on aid to Ukraine. The spending chart above will not change next week. The politics underneath it might.

FAQ

Why does Latvia spend so much on defense? Latvia borders Russia and Belarus and sits on NATO's northeastern flank. After Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and repeated drone incursions, successive Latvian governments have treated defense as an immediate cost, and NATO estimates put Latvia at 4.92% of GDP on core defense in 2026 (Reuters, July 2026).

What is NATO's current defense spending target? At the 2025 Hague summit, allies pledged 3.5% of GDP on core defense plus a further 1.5% on defense-related investment by 2035, replacing the old 2% benchmark from 2014 (Reuters).

Who is expected to win the Latvian election? Reuters reports polls put Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs's centrist United List ahead at about 14%, with the pro-Russian Sovereign Power party close behind, so coalition negotiations are likely.

How does Baltic spending compare with the United States? As a share of GDP, the Baltics spend more: Lithuania 5.33%, Estonia 5.10%, and Latvia 4.92% versus 3.17% for the United States in NATO's 2026 estimates. In absolute dollars the United States remains by far the alliance's largest spender.