Trump Waives Russia Sanctions as Oil Tops $110

On Friday, October 17, the president signed an executive order that did two things at once: it put the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into force, and it waived most of it before it could bite. This is the rare sanctions package where the waiver is the policy. The law, signed in mid-September and named for the late senator who championed it, was built to punish the buyers of Russian oil. The waiver tells those buyers, and Moscow, that Washington would rather have cheap diesel than a tariff war. Here is what actually changed, and what the oil market was already saying before the ink dried.

What the law would have done, and what the waiver stopped

Left alone, the act would have imposed tariffs of up to 100 percent within 30 days on all goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or gas, and on any country that knowingly bought Russian oil or gas 30 days after enactment, according to Reuters reporting of the order on October 17. That target list is not subtle: it points at India and China, the two biggest customers keeping Russian crude moving, and at any state helping Russia evade existing sanctions. In his order, the president certified to Congress that issuing the waiver is in the national interests of the United States, per the White House text quoted by Reuters. India had already raised concerns about the bill, Reuters noted. So the sequence matters: Congress built a 100 percent tariff threat, the buyers objected, and the executive switched it off days before it was to take effect.

The waiver map: Washington decided, Moscow was the sanctioned party, and India and China were the buyers in the tariff line. Source: Reuters, October 17, 2026. Basemap: Natural Earth.

The diesel deal is the waiver's other half

The waiver did not arrive in a vacuum. On October 9, Washington and Moscow announced an energy arrangement under which Russia will supply 4.8 million metric tons of diesel to the US and global markets, a volume reported at the time as roughly ten days of US domestic demand. On the same day, the Treasury Department issued General License No. 135, exempting transactions involving the sale, delivery, and importation of Russian diesel from two sets of Russia-related sanctions. Put plainly, the United States is now buying the fuel its sanctions were designed to squeeze, because diesel prices are the domestic pressure point. Every sanctions lawyer in Delhi, Beijing, and Ankara will read it the same way: when the fuel bill hurts enough, the waiver follows.

Oil voted before Congress did

Markets had already priced the stress the waiver is meant to relieve. Brent crude touched $110 a barrel on Friday, October 16, for the first time since May, and settled at $109.86, up 3.7 percent on the day and 4.9 percent on the week, according to market reporting of the session. West Texas Intermediate settled at $101.41, up 3.5 percent on the day and 10.4 percent on the week. At least nine tankers and cargo ships have come under attack near the Strait of Hormuz since Sunday, and shipments through the strait averaged 9.4 million barrels per day in the week ended Wednesday, about 70 percent of the pre-war average, per ship-tracking reporting. US diesel averaged $6.33 a gallon on Friday, more than 70 percent above a year earlier. Those are the numbers sitting on the president's desk, with midterm elections on November 3.

Both benchmarks settled above $100 on October 16, with Brent touching $110 intraday. Source: Market reporting (CNBC figures via Bloomberg and Reuters summaries).

WTI gained 10.4 percent in a week; Brent gained 4.9 percent. Source: Market reporting, October 16-17, 2026.

What this means for Ukraine and for the next waiver

For Kyiv, the waiver lands on top of a hard week: European leaders rallied around Ukraine in Brussels on October 16 while Washington criticized its refinery strikes, and now Washington has also switched off the one new economic weapon Congress had built. My read is that the administration has chosen a clear hierarchy for the next three weeks: diesel prices first, Hormuz risk second, pressure on Moscow third. That hierarchy can change if Russian barrels actually flow and US diesel falls. If they do not, expect the waiver to be re-argued in public, because a waived sanction that buys no price relief is the worst of both worlds. Watch two numbers: the first Russian diesel cargoes delivered under the license, and whether India treats the waiver as permanent or keeps hedging its Russian purchases anyway.

FAQ

What did Trump waive on October 17, 2026? He issued an executive order implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 while waiving many of its sanctions, restrictions, and duties days before they were to take effect, certifying to Congress that the waiver serves the national interest, according to Reuters.

What would the Graham Act have done without the waiver? It would have imposed tariffs of up to 100 percent within 30 days on goods from the five largest importers of Russian crude oil or gas, and on countries knowingly buying Russian oil or gas after enactment, per Reuters reporting of the legislation.

How much Russian diesel is the US buying? The October 9 arrangement covers 4.8 million metric tons of Russian diesel for US and global markets, and Treasury General License No. 135 exempts those diesel transactions from two sets of Russia-related sanctions.

Why did oil rise while sanctions were being waived? Brent settled at $109.86 and WTI at $101.41 on October 16 as attacks near Hormuz cut strait shipments to about 9.4 million barrels per day, roughly 70 percent of pre-war levels, per market and ship-tracking reporting.